Post-war Syria faces complex political, security, and economic challenges that hinder efforts to rebuild the state and ensure stability. One of the most pressing issues in the current Syrian landscape is the ongoing negotiations between the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, represented by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the new Damascus government led by Ahmad al-Shara’. These negotiations serve as a crucial test for the country’s future, as the Autonomous Administration controls nearly a quarter of Syria’s territory, which includes ethnic and religious diversity, as well as agricultural, underground, and water resources, along with borders with Turkey and Iraq.
The Autonomous Administration’s demands, as broadly outlined, center on recognition as a political entity within a unified Syria and the implementation of an expanded decentralized governance model, which would enable it to manage the areas under its control while securing a share of natural resources such as oil and gas. Additionally, it calls for the integration of SDF forces into the Syrian army while maintaining its independent structure and local security role. Conversely, the Damascus government rejects these demands, arguing that any form of self-rule threatens the unity of the state and insists on fully integrating the SDF under the command of the Ministry of Defense after removing foreign PKK fighters, with centralized control over all national resources.
Despite both parties’ stated commitment to peaceful negotiations and the positive atmosphere surrounding them thus far, these talks take place within a complex internal and regional context. Domestically, the Autonomous Administration faces mounting challenges in securing support from the local population in the Arab-majority areas of Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, and Hasakah, which have witnessed popular protests since the regime fell, supporting the new Syrian administration and demanding the withdrawal of SDF forces, and even demonstrating in Damascus to call for the Shara’ administration’s full control over these provinces.
This issue is not confined to Arab-majority regions, as political divisions within the Kurdish community also impact the negotiations. The Kurdish National Council and its affiliated parties advocate for a unified Kurdish delegation to negotiate with Damascus on Kurdish demands, a stance backed by the Kurdistan Regional Government, the United States, and France, who are sponsoring a parallel negotiation track between the National Council and the Autonomous Administration.
At the regional level, the Autonomous Administration faces military and political pressure from Turkey, which regards the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Meanwhile, the PKK maintains a rigid stance, conditioning its withdrawal from Syria on the SDF securing a leadership role in the country.[6] Furthermore, regional and international political shifts, including growing openness and rapprochement with the new Syrian administration, may, over time, bolster Damascus’ negotiating position against the SDF. While the Autonomous Administration primarily depends on U.S. support and the protection of its forces in Syria, this backing remains subject to change based on the stance of the Trump administration in Washington, [7] adding further challenges to the stability of its negotiating position.
This paper focuses on the internal dynamics influencing negotiations between the Autonomous Administration and the new Damascus government, shifting the emphasis from regional and international variables to the perspectives of local communities in the areas controlled by the Autonomous Administration. It also aims to examine their political demands and negotiating positions with Damascus, assessing how much these communities accept the Autonomous Administration as a governing system that reflects their aspirations. Additionally, it explores their views on decentralization, the role of the SDF, and the equitable distribution of resources, ultimately providing a thorough understanding of the internal challenges impacting the future of negotiations.
Read more: Representation of Northeastern Syria in Political Transition
